'This Plan Poses A Tough Question To The West'

What will Zelensky bring to Brussels?

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy presented a plan for victory before the Verkhovna Rada. Today he is flying to Brussels, where he will present it at a meeting of the European Council.

How realistic is this plan? Charter97.org spoke about this with Petro Oleshchuk, a Ukrainian political scientist and professor at Taras Shevchenko National University in Kyiv:

— In the form in which it is formulated, its implementation depends on Ukraine's partners. Whether or not they have the political will to do it. It cannot yet be said that this political will is noticeable, but the tough formulation of the issue radically opens up additional opportunities for some progress in this direction.

— Why did Zelensky present the plan now?

— This is not only related to the political processes in the United States and Europe. There is an important factor, which the President of Ukraine spoke about not so long ago, is the entry into the war of the DPRK on the side of Russia.

It is not only about the supply of ammunition or missiles, but also the direct participation of their troops. This significantly changes the nature of the war, as it translates it into a format where Ukraine is against the "axis of evil".

The entry of the DPRK into the war, even if the number of troops will be minimal at first, is an example of what the White House likes to call escalation. The answer to it should be symmetrical.

If there is no such response, then everyone in the world will perceive this as permission for further escalation on an unlimited scale. It is unclear where this will lead us all. Perhaps, to the entry of China into the war.

For a long time in the West, they tried to present it all as a local conflict, but now the situation looks like a global conflict. Responses to global challenges must also be global.

Zelensky's victory plan is a format of communication between Ukraine and the West. Moreover, both with the political elite and with society.

Here I would like to draw attention to the 4th and 5th points of the plan, which, as I see, are not very discussed, but in fact they are very important.

The 4th point reads that there are a lot of natural resources in Ukraine. The most important ones are lithium and uranium. We are talking about the fact that these resources can be spent either on the democratic world, or, if the "axis of evil" captures them, they will work to strengthen its military and economic potential. To later turn them, for example, against the same Americans.

Or, I repeat, resources can work for the civilized world. To do this, it must make the appropriate choice.

The 5th point concerns the fact that Ukraine has experience in countering modern military threats, and it is ready to share this experience. Moreover, to participate in the relevant military operations that will be conducted by the civilized world. But to do this, it must recognize Ukraine as its part and support it.

— The first point is the invitation of Ukraine to NATO. What might it look like today?

— Ukraine does not claim to receive some kind of assistance, let's say, for free. We are ready to provide quite specific benefits for the West for this assistance, but it must mature for making certain political decisions. One of them is Ukraine's invitation to NATO.

At the same time, an invitation to NATO does not mean instant membership. Honestly, the question of membership is likely to stretch for an unknown period and will depend on many circumstances. But the invitation to NATO will already be an indicator that the West recognizes Ukraine as its part and sends appropriate signals to both Russia and China.

Signals that everything is serious will not just blatantly seize part of Europe in order to then use it as a base for further political expansion.

This is a message for the political elites of the West. And, as we know, on the one hand, they are cowards, on the other, they are inconsistent, on the third, they dream of reaching an agreement with Russia, and on the fourth, they are afraid to make decisions. But this is also a message for society, since all countries are democratic, and a lot depends on the opinion of society.

Accordingly, Zelensky's victory plan is also an appeal to society, like what Western society wants. Does it want to support Ukraine now, at the cost of relatively little risk and resources, or then get a much more serious threat against itself from the "axis of evil", which will unite, strengthen, receive additional resources and will threaten the same West even more.

This plan toughly raises the question for the West: whether they want Ukraine to win or not? It is clear that they will not say: we do not want. Then they either accept this plan or offer some other one, which can lead to a similar result, but by some other actions.

I emphasize that there have never been any plans on the part of the West. This has always been the subject of criticism, for example, from the opposition.

This is how Republicans criticize the Democrats and the Joe Biden administration, saying that you support Ukraine, but you do not have a plan. They even introduced a corresponding provision into the law on the allocation of funds for Ukraine. The administration of the White House had to provide this plan within a certain period of time. It also delayed all the deadlines, as a result, it submitted a plan to Congress, but we do not know what specific provisions are contained there.

They avoid the plan. The plan to support Ukraine as much as necessary, but who needs it, how it should be, what the result will be — it is unclear. They avoid details. They do not have and will not have their own victory plan, but the West cannot say that they do not support the Ukrainian victory plan, because then it turns out that they are against the victory of Ukraine, and they will not be able to explain this to the electorate.

Therefore, we are already seeing the first reaction to the plan from Ukraine's Western partners. In the United States, they said that, in general, the plan is very good, but there are some features that need to be discussed.

In fact, we see that these are elements of diplomatic work, the process and, obviously, all these points will not be fulfilled in the near future. But raising the issue in a radical way, one way or another, cannot but affect the position of Western partners. We will see how the situation will develop in the future, but sooner or later they will have to recognize the entry of the DPRK into the war and react to it. Even in order to banally show China that it's no joke.

The logical response to the entry of the DPRK could be either the sending of troops (at least a small unit of the French Foreign Legion), or another symmetrical response.

If the Chinese do not see such an answer, it will end very badly for everyone.

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