'Lukashenka May Fail To Go The Distance For The 'Elections'

Belarus is already run by other people.

What should Belarusians do in the upcoming "elections"? Who is really running the country today? Who can become the president of a free Belarus?

Dzmitry Bandarenka, the Coordinator of the European Belarus Civil Campaign, told about this in the Radio Racyja studio in Białystok. Charter97.org publishes the conversation:

— Is this your first visit to Białystok? Do you have any connections with Białystok region?

— I was in Białystok for the first time in 1998. Viktar Ivashkevich invited me back then, one of the leaders of the Belarusian Popular Front and the Independent Workers' Movement of Belarus. A special seminar was held in Supraśl. Then the meetings were in Białystok, Bielsk. And then I saw for the first time what the land on which Belarusians live in Poland looks like. And I fell in love with Białystok.

I was truly impressed. Then Uladzimir Matskevich, who is now in prison, was with us.

You can listen to the conversation here

— You actively participated in the 2010 elections, were a confidant of presidential candidate Andrei Sannikov. There were protests after the election. There were trials. Five candidates were accused and sentenced ranging from two to six years in prison. You were behind bars then, too. We also remember the 2020 events well. And what will be the "elections" in January 2025?

— Recently, I've started talking that Belarusians until 2022 had a chance to change the situation, to free themselves from the yoke of dictatorship by peaceful means. And to a greater extent independently. Today we depend on the situation in the region. Russian aggression against Ukraine changed everything. Now the use of heavy aviation and artillery have become in fact the habitual means of diplomacy. And today Belarus may lose its independence with even higher possibility in my opinion. Therefore, we can consider these so-called elections from this point of view. Because we do not know whether Lukashenka will have enough health to go the distance for the "elections".

— He already has an action group.

— He may die, "apoplexy" they say. Everything is possible. But this does not guarantee us that we will still preserve independence. So, we see Putin's level of cynicism and impudence. The "referendums" in the Kherson region and other parts of occupied Ukraine. Belarus is in danger today. That's what we need to think about. Here I agree with Natallia Radzina that "elections" should simply be ignored. But, of course, when a situation of loss of independence arises, Belarusians will have no other choice but to defend independence with arms or by other means.

— Are you inclined to say that as long as there is Lukashenka, Belarus will not disappear?

— No. Look how many times Lukashenka deceived the Ukrainians that "the Belarusians will come to Ukraine only on tractors" and "will never allow the Russians to pass through Belarusian territory to attack Ukraine." But 2022 showed that it was all a lie. Of course, there was no large-scale participation of the Belarusian military in the aggression, but we know that the helicopters flew, and the aircraft were Belarusian, the Belarusian special forces were there. And there are volunteers in the "DPR". We have been living for too long to believe Lukashenka.

— So, what does Lukashenka hope for after the election? For at least some recognition by the West, the international community?

— Look, I'm also a middle-aged man, I also have problems. But I'm looking at Lukashenka, he is 10 years older. He may have the best medicine there, but he's in very bad shape. We saw on TV that when Lukashenka makes even some simple movements, the grimace of pain distorts his face. At this age and with such diseases, a person is already thinking about simple ordinary things.

But there is a big family, there are children and grandchildren who say: "Save us." They know how much Belarusians hate them, they know that they can be cleaned up also by the Russians. After all, this family is involved in big money, billions of dollars that may be hidden both in Belarus and elsewhere.

I think Lukashenka is trying to save his family and prolong his life. That's what he thinks about. But as for some geopolitical concepts and plans... I think it's all fiction. It is clear that he is incapable of this. It can be seen that Belarus is led by other people. The military bloc is more focused on the Kremlin, on Putin. Lukashenka is no longer an authority either for the Belarusian military or for officials.

— You mentioned the Lukashenka family. There is an opinion that he will be dragging it as long as possible to transfer the presidency to his youngest son Mikalai. Do you think this is serious?

— Belarus is not Chechnya, this option will not work, because we do not have tribal relations in the country. And, it seems, he can count on other people more. But I will say that recently our team has been approached by people who claim that some of Lukashenka's officials are ready for certain negotiations and conversations. They want some kind of security guarantees because they feel threatened by the Russians.

We saw that the "master of Donbas" Rinat Akhmetov lost everything. He missed the moment when he could have influenced the situation in Donetsk. And today it's the same. These "Lukashenka's wallets" will lose everything, the officials will lose. And they understand this, so it may be easier for them to try to negotiate with the opposition. I think there are negotiations with some people who are in prisons, in exile, also trying to establish certain contacts.

— How can the Belarusian opposition influence the "elections", unite at least partially? I have the impression that all are against each other now. For example, sanctions: Pazniak is against sanctions, Tsikhanouskaia is for sanctions, European Belarus is also for sanctions, but totally against Tsikhanouskaia. It seems that a lot of things do not agree with Pazniak and with Latushka, although Latushka supports sanctions. The old opposition and the new one do not find a common language.

— This is a normal situation, at one time (you probably know this better) I heard from veterans of the Polish "Solidarity" that in fact the "round table" was not a place for negotiations only on the line "Solidarity" — "Authorities". It was a "round table" of new subjects who were born, and then there were elections. A year later, the entire political spectrum was already represented in Poland. There were also more radical forces in Poland at that time. For example, "Struggling Solidarity", which did not take part in the "round table" at all.

— But they quarreled with each other later, when they took power.

— No, I know that the "Struggling Solidarity" did not have representatives even at the round table and at those meetings in the "Magdalenka", which were organized by the Polish special services.

As for Belarus, in 2019, where was Latushka, where was Tsikhanouskaya? We were preparing this revolution, the European Belarus, the Belarusian National Congress, whose leader was Mikalai Statkevich. Of course, we crossed paths, we agreed a lot with Pavel Seviarynets.

We talked with Zianon Stanislavavich in 2019. I talked to him for the first time. The meeting was good, four hours. But he spoke for three hours and forty-five minutes. Natallia Radzina and I could only talk for fifteen minutes, he did not listen. We warned that there will inevitably be a revolution, that 2017 has already shown that Belarusians want change.

Zianon Stanislavavich then believed that nothing would happen, no revolution. This is an ordinary thing when people have different opinions on some issues, but when Zianon Pazniak says that "Radzina needs to be put in jail for her statements, and he will definitely do it", naturally, I believe that this is just nonsense.

One more thing. Neither Tsikhanouskaia, nor Latushka, nor Zianon Pazniak personally spent a single day in prison. This is also a factor for Belarus, I think, which is important.

— On the part of Tsikhanouskaia's opponents, we hear that at the end of January 2025, all her powers will absolutely end. Then, what comes next? The democratic world now sees Tsikhanouskaia as a partner for conversation. And I think that the next "elections" will not nominate a leader recognized by the majority of the opposition, a representative of Belarus in contact with the Democratic World. Who should they talk to then?

— Maybe the Belarusians do not remember, but there was such a leader as Milinkevich, he was really recognized. Unlike Tsikhanouskaia, he had experience, spoke Polish and French well, and also met with world leaders. But then he began to travel abroad and say that "Lukashenka is the guarantor of independence" and it is necessary to support him.

Anatol Liabedzka was very popular at the time, who also traveled to the West. And then such a group was created, in the 2000s, that the Belarusian opposition was represented by the communist leader Kaliakin, who had already died, the elder Haidukevich. Here Liabedzka, Haidukevich and Kaliakin represented the Belarusian opposition.

I don't care who Tsikhanouskaia meets. It is important to me that 2020 gave an impetus to changes in the mass consciousness of Belarus, thousands of leaders appeared. This is the phenomenon of Belarusian courtyards, when they lived as independent communes, for example, when writers and musicians performed there. There was a very strong solidarity. These thousands of people ended up in prisons. They are our gold fund and potential. And they are the most important people.

I think that in the end, the most important will be those who are in prison today. Even those people who had a different experience before, until 2020, like Babaryka. I admit that Saul can also become Paul.

As for the powers of Tsikhanouskaia... I've never met her personally. We then helped to take her out (Natallia Radzina — mostly) and her children. We helped her at the beginning of the campaign, few people know that half of Tsikhanouskaia's proxies (she did not have her own people) are activists of European Belarus and Narodnaia Hramada [the Belarusian Social Democratic Party - Ed.]. I just personally know that this person does not remember good, believes that she has achieved everything on her own.

By the way, I think it would be useful to talk to Sannikov, for example, to learn something about international politics. Tsikhanouskaia and her entourage believe that they are the smartest, the most experienced, but they do not want to be responsible for mistakes, for the "Plan Peramoha" (Victory Plan), for officials and officers of the special services among them. Today, there are big claims against them.

— The Poles have an expression that "it takes two to tango". If there is no invitation from Tsikhanouskaia, then maybe there will be some steps from Sannikov?

— I don't see the point right now. A big scandal arose in the Polish media. A film about Mashenski – "Lukashenka's wallet" – was released on TVN. Only Sannikov asked why he was not under sanctions? Why was Tsikhanouskaia in Iceland five or six times, and all Mashenski's business is connected with Iceland? There are a lot of questions. I believe that this (Tsikhanouskaia's office) is a small NGO group that mainly deals with its own interests. But I believe and hope, and I can even say that I know that there will be good leaders who will lead Belarus forward in the new situation — those who are in prison today.

— Maybe you can say something about them, about those who are in prison. You were also a political prisoner, is this an insoluble Belarusian problem — political prisoners? What should they do? Repent, ask for forgiveness, make concessions, talk to Lukashenka, negotiate? I have the impression that the Belarusians here are left alone.

— I know that the Belarusian dictatorship releases prisoners only under significant pressure. This was the case when Kazulin was released early. This was the case when Sannikov and I were released early, as well as Dashkevich and other leaders of the Young Front. Even when there were the first political prisoners — Siuchyk and Khadyka...

— Whose pressure?

— Western pressure and very serious economic sanctions. Now, of course, the situation is different, because they say that 60,000 Ukrainians are in captivity in very difficult conditions. I will not say that Belarusians are in better conditions, but 60,000 Ukrainians and many people in the occupied territories. Unfortunately, the issue of Belarusian political prisoners is in the background.

For Russia and some Western countries, Western businesses, Belarus is a smuggling corridor. It could be closed very quickly, at least for two weeks, and all prisoners would be free.

— China is absolutely not interested in blocking transit. Lukashenka says: "They do not put pressure on me," but I think it would be enough to say a single word...

— You know, the power in Poland has changed recently. I, of course, do not want to talk about internal issues, but the fact that the new government has maintained a tough position towards the Lukashenka regime, a tough position on the protection of the Polish border, is very important.

A few months ago, there were steps when Poland, in a cunning way, checking cargo on the railway, showed that it could slow down transit from China to Europe. Some believe that this led to the first releases of political prisoners, but no further steps were taken. Decisiveness is needed here. And we say that we need leaders like Reagan, and like Thatcher at the time. It seems to me that Tusk and Minister Sikorski are strong and experienced figures.

— But we need a big European coalition, Poland will not be able to do it on its own.

— I think Poland, together with the Baltic states, could solve this issue. I know that such negotiations are still ongoing, that is, about pressure and release. The war got in the way, it really did. But the situation is such that it would not turn out that our people will then also sit in Siberian camps, as Ukrainians do today. There must be pressure and wisdom. I see that today the Polish leadership understands that time is very short.

— Let's go back to the beginning. What should Belarusians do on January 26?

— Belarusians should ignore this event. I leave a certain backlash that something may happen, as it is fashionable to say that "black swans will remain, there will be no ice in winter." We now see that birds sometimes do not fly south. Not only "white" swans, but also "black" swans can remain. But it is necessary to ignore the so-called elections. Yes, there will be attempts to drive students and workers to early voting, but Belarusians can show empty polling stations on voting day, this is also a good picture.

Many times the opposition boycotted the so-called local elections, parliamentary elections, although Lukashenka was trying hard. Foreigners came on election day, and the polling stations were empty. And this is the simplest form of protest for Belarusians — to stay at home, to have their own pride, to keep their "No" and not to go out, not to help this system.

Let them suffer, let them run, let them fuss. And Belarusians will sit, go to the country or hide somewhere — this is possible, because there are a lot of pensioners, and a lot of people in the non-state sector. You can go to another country for this time, even to Russia. There are many options, but you do not need to play by their rules.

— Who would you vote for if you had the opportunity? Let's fantasize a little, is there someone who could be your candidate so that you can go and vote for?

— In these circumstances, I will not vote in any way.

— Maybe otherwise: who would be a good candidate and a good president of Belarus?

— For a representative president, there could be Sannikov, Ales Bialiatski or Statkevich. This applies to the president, who performs mostly representative functions. Although some Belarusians are in favor of a parliamentary republic. In all our neighboring post-Soviet, post-socialist countries, the presidency is preserved.

And who will be the Prime Minister — there should be a normal party life, but this is the next stage. The first free elections should be held under the 1994 Constitution.

And there should be elections to the Parliament of Belarus, the Supreme Council. This is the opinion of the former judge of the Constitutional Court Mikhail Pastukhou, and I agree with this, because in 1996 there was a coup d 'état. It is necessary to return to this point in the legal sense. This is more important than any personality. Because there we will have several cycles of the election campaign: municipal elections, which never happened, elections of mayors, in two years there will be a new parliament. Perhaps already with the party lists.

Perhaps, if this parliament retains the presidency (although many people, as I said, are against it), there will be presidential elections. That's more important than personality. The most important are the principles, the most important are the freedom of choice for the people and the desire to quickly change Belarus so that we can catch up with the countries that have overtaken us in development.

— A very bright, very optimistic image you drew for me.

— I am a Catholic, I was in the church in Białystok today. I saw the stained-glass windows with our priest Popiełuszko. And therefore, after the church, I am in a very good mood, I look at everything very optimistically. With God's help, we will do everything.

— Dzmitry Bandarenka, the coordinator of the European Belarus Civil Campaign and former political prisoner was my guest today in an optimistic mood. Thank you very much!

— Thank you for the invitation. Long live Belarus!

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