Andrei Sannikov: We Must Be Ready If Lukashenka Dies Tomorrow

The system has outlived itself.

The independent newspaper Novaya Gazeta made a big interview with Andrei Sannikov, the leader of the European Belarus Civil Campaign.

In an interview, the opposition politician spoke about his vision of the upcoming electoral performance and also the good future of his country. This future, he is sure, is closer than most people think.

Andrei Sannikov worked for the Foreign Ministry for many years (resigned as Deputy Minister in 1996 in protest on the eve of the Lukashenka referendum on changing the Constitution), is one of the most respected and informed politicians in Belarus. But in recent years, he has to speak only outside the country: he lectures, participates in conferences and, finally, prepares scenarios for the future for his country. But first — about the present...

"People are not kept in Belarusian prisons, they are killed there"

— How many political prisoners are in Belarus now, according to your data?

— Maybe up to 10,000, it is impossible to be more precise — it's going on, daily arrests, guilty verdicts. The situation is terrifying. The official figures — about 1,500 — it's incorrect. Mainly because it is impossible to process all the data and not all families want publicity regarding their relatives — although this is what always harms their loved ones.

— Last week, 22-year-old Russian political prisoner Dmitry Schletgauer died in a Belarusian prison [after a conversation, it turned out that signs of strangulation were found on his body. — Ed.]. According to the Viasna Human Rights Center, this is at least the seventh death of a political prisoner after 2020. I know from your book that you too were in monstrous conditions in prison... Has the regime totally brutalized after 2020?

— Yes, it became absolutely brutal... This is only what we know, 7 people: artist Ales Pushkin, activist Vitold Ashurak, entrepreneur Aliaksandr Kulinich, civic activist and journalist Ihar Lednik, IT specialist Vadzim Khrasko, public figure and blogger Mikalai Klimovich, public activist Dzmitry Dudoits. It's hard to talk about it. These are murders to which there was practically no reaction in the world, and today I want to say that people are not kept in Belarusian prisons, they are killed there. Slowly, painfully... The unwillingness to react to this on the part of those states that have the opportunity and are obliged to do it — the countries of the conditional West and other states, their unwillingness to take the dictatorship in the center of Europe more seriously — also contributes to these deaths.

Even when I was imprisoned [in 2010–2012 — Ed.], it was clear that the system of pressure on political prisoners was being worked out. That's not just my personal speculation. The head of the Amerikanka prison [the internal KGB prison in the heart of Minsk - Ed.] told me about this: that a whole KGB system, which is now called the Institute of Security, is working on a program of pressure on us, engaged in politics, on each of us. And the program is consistently implemented. It has now crossed the "physical" border, because if in my time they tried to cause injuries and mutilations, some serious consequences for the body indirectly and secretly — depriving us of something or, conversely, placing us in the cold, secretly beating us or trying to poison us somehow — now they have crossed all the red lines. And the death of seven people is the result of this "program".

— Do you know the names of people who are in mortal danger — including for health reasons?

— Yes a lot. Palina Sharenda-Panasiuk – Belarusian Joan of Arc. They are keeping her in a punishment cell all the time, the most brutal regime, and she also has very poor health... Andrei Voinich, who needs an urgent liver transplant, a border situation, can very quickly replenish the list of those who died in prison... We can talk about Maryia Kalesnikava, whose state of health is the subject of alarming news. We have not heard anything about Mikalai Statkevich for two years and four months. I can list more now and it will take a few hours. We have some kind of zindan mixed with North Korea in Belarus... Neither Western politicians nor the media want to talk about it, and we, even being outside Belarus, get this information every day and try to help people from the outside, we understand how monstrous the situation is.

But this is also an indicator of Lukashenka's fear.

— And what do Lukashenka's statements mean in a recent interview with the BBC that he is allegedly ready to consider a pardon petition from Maryia Kalesnikava?

— This means nothing. He cheats, as usual... He is a pathological liar who sometimes gets himself confused by his own lies.

He needs some kind of breakthrough with Western money today. Not to the West — he hates the Western democratic world, and he will never understand what it is. But he just needs the money to survive.

Because Putin now keeps him on a short leash — if he gives money, it is due to tough conditions. He wants to return his well-being, when he received loans and investments from the West for promises and lies, so this is how you should perceive his statement.

But he no longer exists as some kind of recognized political figure. This is a rather strange situation — a cruel regime is associated with Lukashenka, but in fact he loses control, is controlled by some other forces — the Kremlin, security forces, fraudsters, dirty business.

"Annexation of Belarus is impossible"

— So, do you mean that Lukashenko has no power even over the Belarusian security forces?

— No, he has this power, but he does not have the resources for this power. They're over. And there are no human “resources” at all. In 2020, they ended finally. Although, it would have ended a long time ago if they if counted honestly: Lukashenka, after his election in 1994 as a protest candidate, falsified all other elections. This became particularly clear In 2020. As you know, 97% of the vote were against Lukashenka... After that, he naturally increased his fear of losing power, so he uses the only lever, the only tool available to him — repression against his own people. He is null as a leader — because the economy is not developing, independence is under threat — what kind of head of state is he?

— You said: "human resources are over". What does it mean? Doesn't he have enough security forces now?

— There are not as many security forces as propagandists try to portray... When a system is decrepit and ready to die, it appears very strong. But in fact, this whole pyramid rests on the fact that people loyal to the dictator build the same system of repression in subordinate ministries, organizations, law enforcement agencies, even in business.

Therefore, others begin to hate them — just as they hate the first person. All this pyramid that seems stable will collapse. The system has outlived itself. How quickly this will happen? It depends on all of us — on Belarusians inside Belarus, on those who are abroad, on the democratic world.

— A little later we will talk about what the opposition can do, but in the meantime lat's finish with the security forces... That is, relatively speaking, if Putin leaves power tomorrow for some reason, say, then Lukashenka's security forces will not protect Lukashenka and his regime to the last bullet?

— Lukashenka's security forces? He does not understand that they are now more loyal to Putin. Those key security officials... And the FSB is working with them, I suppose, so that this loyalty manifests itself at a critical moment. You said "if tomorrow Putin steps down from power", and I think we must be ready if Lukashenka dies tomorrow.

— Well, in this case, Putin will put a new dictator subordinate instead?

— I am sure that the system will not cope with the new situation, because such a centralized, figure-focused system as under Lukashenka will no longer work. A "protégé" may appear, but neither he nor the security forces will be able to take control of everything, because it is impossible to appoint a person from Moscow to this Lukashenka system.

You can't even put a person from Belarus. It is not adapted to this.

— You said that Putin keeps him on a short leash and allocates money for some specific services. What services are we talking about?

— About the war in Ukraine!

— But this is an ongoing "service"...

— Here we must return to the beginning of the war. Our team constantly told our friends in the West and Ukrainian friends that if Lukashenka was in power, a war would happen. And the 2020 was decisive. If the democratic world reacted faster, and Ukraine reacted faster to our revolution, to what was happening then in Belarus, there would be no war.

If it had been possible to bring down the Lukashenka regime, which was just on the verge of collapse in 2020, there would have been no war. We made such a very simple forecast. For some reason, even Ukrainians did not want to perceive it...

— Explain, why not? Well, they wouldn't go through Belarus...

— I don't think, I am sure. Russia will never be able to annex Belarus. But he can give us a hard life for a while. It will not be able to annex, because even under Lukashenka, these thirty years showed the Belarusian national identity has grown significantly... Well, maybe even because of Lukashenka, because resistance on the basis of the national idea, national language, Belarusian culture increased under him. It crystallizes qualitatively and becomes a very strong factor, although it is underground. Therefore, there will be resistance, and the Kremlin will not be able to achieve its goals. Therefore, it is necessary today to think more substantively about where critical points exist for rapid reforms in Belarus in the near future.

— Tell me please, are the statements about nuclear weapons in Belarus true, according to your information, or is it a bluff?

— It's a bluff! I was engaged in treaties on nuclear disarmament in the territory of the former USSR and I see that this is a bluff. This does not mean that there is no danger. Also, it is not necessary to base nuclear weapons in Belarus to use it. They can quickly deliver it in case. But it seems to me that Lukashenko's state of health, including mental health, does not allow Putin today to order that some tactical nuclear weapons be deployed in Belarus.

Belarus is not so rich as not to join NATO

— So, NATO membership, since you mentioned it... You have recently published a collection of articles with the same name "Belarus in NATO" — tell us about it, please.

— Disputes have always been conducted in Belarus, and there were many supporters of neutrality. And it was strange to me before, and after the war in Ukraine, it seems to me that there should be no doubt that we should be in the Alliance, but still the talks continue. And even the group that is around Tsikhanouskaia says: we do not need NATO membership yet, people need to figure it out. But such "experts" probably do not understand that security today is either to participate in the war together with Russia, or to join NATO... That's it. Really easy. Neutrality costs a lot of money.

To maintain neutrality, a small country, economically not very developed, will need to leave everyone with only bread and water and invest only in weapons and defence. But that's nonsense.

Therefore, I asked reputable experts from neighboring countries, who held public positions and worked in think tanks, to comment on this issue. <…> And they made very interesting analysis and figured out ways for practical solutions.

I am pleased, first of all, with the high quality of articles and the fact that it was possible to set such a new vector — let's think about what will happen tomorrow in Belarus. It's not about how we will clean up some rubble, but let's set goals for which we will clean up these rubble. The book was published in four languages — English, Belarusian, Ukrainian and Russian, you can read it online for free.

— What gives you hope that NATO wants Belarus to join? If we see that Ukraine has problems today.

— No offense to Ukraine... There are no such problems in Belarus as there are in some other countries. When independent Belarus faced disarmament problems, we were helped by the fact that the territory of the Belarusian military district of the USSR completely coincided along the borders with the territory of Belarus. That is, there were no disputed territories or military facilities entering the territory of other countries...

Brother and Brother-2

— You said that Moscow does not support Lukashenka so much, but at the expense of what and who else does this regime can survive economically?

— Well, after all, it manages to trade something with the West... And Putin can help, there is enough money. He doesn't want to help... Look at what Putin has been doing for the last two-plus years. He pulls Lukashenko on some unnecessary measures to demonstrate his infirmity. Because everyone sees this obese dictator, who is barely moving, who has a lot of problems, and Lukashenka comes, begins to flinch. Then someone allegedly accidentally leaks: some footage of him being taken or he is taken out of the car. Then he comes back and takу it out on his circle...

But no matter the has no options, especially now, separately... They hate each other the whole history of their relationship, but it's like the heads of "families". Such "families" are not obliged to love each other, but they do a common cause.

— Lukashenka regularly admits that Putin is his brother, who is closer then a real one...

— Well, yes, because he knows that the Putin clan is stronger. Putin no longer gives any free money. He gives money for specific obligations.

“I don't care about the fate of the regime. I care about people's lives”

— In a BBC interview, Lukashenka said he had a meeting with an unnamed representative of a Western state for many hours... Is this also a bluff or was there some kind of meeting? With whom?

— We'll find out a bit later. Lukashenka's feature: he announces some victories, and then talks about what it really was. In fact, it turns out that this is something exactly the opposite. At the same time, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a meeting. There are enough politicians in the West who are both cynical and naive. Including those who willingly use the situation of dictatorship in order to gain some points or enrich themselves. Because a dictatorship for a certain type of business is, first of all, easy secret money. There are such figures in governments and in various funds... And since, again, I think it is very important for him to open some kind of funding channel from the West, then... He expected everything to be the same as before.

I thought and think: "They will talk a little about sanctions there, and then they will start doing business with me anyway." Potassium, wood, fertilizers, chemistry and so on. A lot of things can be sold, and there will be buyers. But here he has already crossed some red lines, so it is more difficult to agree. So far, we see that he does not succeed in what he did before.

It's just that he has become so famous all over the world over the years — as a liar and a man who never keeps his word. It's just that even for this practical reason, they don't want to deal with him.

Not about human rights violations. Nothing personal, just business, as they say.

— Then about the sanctions. You have said many times that they should be tougher. What sanctions do you think are more or less working?

— I believe that personal sanctions are not sanctions at all. In the case of Belarus, the KGB-related business does not particularly hope for some kind of base that it can get in Europe or in North America, so they are working mainly — with Arabs, with Latin America, with Africa, yes — but not in the West. I constantly repeat: the toughest sanctions are needed with one requirement, and then I will be the first to say: that's over, you can talk, you can remove all sanctions, only save people's lives. This requirement is to release all political prisoners. All of them.

I don't care about the fate of the regime, because it will collapse anyway. I care about people's lives.

And this — in exchange for the lifting of sanctions — would be supported even by China. Because this greatly hinders China – the fact that Europe closes the border for the flows of goods from China through Belarus to Europe.

— Sectoral sanctions are not imposed at all in any sector now, are they?

— They are very limitedly. There are many loopholes that are not closed. A whole bunch of companies have been formed, under the new names of which businesses that have fallen under sanctions are hiding. For example, let's take 2020. Brutal dispersal of mass protests, including the murder of demonstrators — Taraikouski and others. Noise grenades — from the Czech Republic. Rubber bullets — from Poland. Flamethrowers — jointly from Canada. The Face Tracking System agaist protesters — a company from the United States. And many other things. Although sanctions were already in place at that time. And all because Europe and the United States should monitor closely their mechanisms for sanctions realisatoion. <…> Therefore, in order for me to believe in sanctions, a serious criminal case in the West is needed, against businessmen of the West, which would concern the support of the regime of Belarus through business. We know some surnames. But no measures were taken against them in their countries.

There are other examples, for example, a certain Moshensky. A businessman who was part of Lukashenka's team in 2010. That is, indirectly, the person who contributed to imprisonment of the protesters, our team, me... He now very well enjoys the patronage of Iceland and some other democratic states, he sells fish and seafood (leading a Belarusian company!) around the world.

And an additional cynical touch — he is also the honorary consul of Iceland in Belarus. (laughs) And when I asked the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iceland: "How could that happen?" — She told me: "We have no direct evidence that he works for the dictatorship." Well, it looks very funny. I say, “Here is the direct evidence before you, he facilitated my imprisonment.” She ran away then.

Well, there are other examples. In Germany, for example. Germany has always been very interested in doing business in Belarus. But they always failed, because it is convenient to cheat them: and they are silent even when scammed. They hoped that they would succeed here, as with Ukraine, with the Baltic States, with Russia — to enter serious big business. But no one succeeded in entering Belarus, including Germany.

— Why, Lukashenko was not interested in big business coming to the country?

— He is interested in ripping them off and having them work under his guidance. He does not understand what business for the country means. He sees only threat to power.

Well, what is it — some big business will enter, and what if they want to get out of control, and there is a chancellor behind them? Well, let them go to hell, I'd rather work with batons here, I'll sell what I have...

— What can Belarus sell?

— First of all — natural resources. Fertilizers Wood that is barbarically destroyed. When there is an opportunity to sell, everything goes under the axe. Good production and processing of agricultural products so far. Everything goes to Moscow and in terms of quality it could compete in Europe.

Tsikhanouskaia got a huge credit of trust

— Let's go back to 2020. What did the opposition do wrong then, and what did the West do wrong — specifically?

— I would say as follows: the only candidate who was on the side of the opposition of Belarus did not show decisiveness. And the West did not show decisiveness. Especially after blood in Minsk, more serious measures had to be taken. And from the West there were vague statements and the absence of any sanctions for six months.

In addition, Tsikhanouskaia is the only presidential candidate in the history of independent Belarus, who left the country in the midst of protests. This, in my opinion, could not be done with such a stunning mandate of trust that the Belarusians gave her. The people of Belarus were protecting her. In addition, in the first days since the election day, there was neither a call for sanctions, nor a call for protests on her part and her entourage. And as history shows, the first days are the most important. If the opposition shows strength, if the international democratic community demonstrates that it is on the side of the opposition, then a breakthrough can be achieved very quickly...

— Measures — only these, there are no others?

– Sure. I am a supporter of nonviolent action. And I'm not considering any other options. For one simple reason — if violence occurs, it automatically affects the future structure of power in the country.

— You criticized Tsikhanouskaia for indecision but did not soften our opinion since her husband is in prison.

— (Surprised)

I do not. No, I do not.

— She could have been threatened: we'll kill your husband now if you don't leave.

—... I don't, because she went when her husband was already in prison. She was supported by people because her husband was in prison. Decisive actions could release her husband from prison, especially since their children were already safe in a foreign country.

Therefore, I believe that it played a negative role after the voting day. If before the election day she inspired hope, then after — her actions are in the red.

— And what to do about the fact that after the elections, Western countries recognize Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaia as, if not the legitimate president, then at least the official representative of the Belarusian opposition? It is with her that the presidents and the authorities of the European Union meet.

— So? So, has something changed in our country? What are we going to do about it? Do everything to help people in Belarus, to release political prisoners. Understand that even in the most difficult situation, it is necessary to fight for freedom and independence. Think about how not to miss the decisive moment. The last time such a decisive moment was in 2020. So now we are working on creating the next decisive moment.

— You rightly say that Tsikhanouskaia is not the entire opposition, or even most of it. But what did the rest of the opposition do, why did they not show themselves in those decisive days and months of 2020?

— Another part of the opposition? But it was we who prepared all these processes. Our candidate was Miikalai Statkevich. It was he and Siarhei Tsikhanouski, Sviatlana's husband, who started this revolution. And just with the help of our team. Because Mikalai is our ally, we are part of the same coalition: the Belarusian National Congress. The three of us held a press conference in the winter of 2019 — Uladzimir Niakliaeu, Mikalai Statkevich and I, and announced Mikalai as our candidate in the elections in Belarus. And the fact that he and Tsikhanouski began their trips, began to collect, as they called it, protest candidates for the 2019, when there were parliamentary elections, and for the 2020 year — this was our strategy.

And so our candidate — precisely because of his danger, he was the most dangerous for Lukashenka — was arrested... And since he also received a powerful popular blogger in the person of Tsikhanouski, they both were arrested.

They were planted first in that campaign, at the end of May 2020 [the presidential election was held on August 9 - Ed.]. So we had a candidate and we had a strategy that was being implemented. Then this strategy was intercepted when some strange figures appeared on the political field. I believe that it was not without the participation of the KGB.

First, knowing what kind of blood we managed to collect 100,000 signatures in 2010 — real blood, because there was incredible resistance: they tried to steal signatures and there were various provocations — I am sure that Tsikhanouskaia did not collect one hundred thousand signatures. We have had such cases before, when people who did not collect signatures were registered for the Lukashenka's scenario. And the fact that she was registered was already an indicator that she would be "led". Well, that's how it turned out, in my opinion.

— You can get the argument that Lukashenka was not afraid of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaia, because "she is a housewife" and he needed such a "weak rival", against whose background even he would win.

— And one does not contradict the other. I'm not saying that she was a conscious participant in this, but that she was a figure in this scenario is a fact for me.

— What work are you doing now and can you describe the balance of forces in the Belarusian opposition?

— I prefer not to do it. Thin ice, dangerous... I can say in general terms: today, opposition leaders are mostly in prison. Those who have been fighting for the freedom and independence of their country for many years.

— Do you think there are people in prisons whom Lukashenka will never let go? Or will he be able to bargain about any life?

— He is afraid of real opposition, and he takes revenge on those who were once on his team.

— Would you participate again yourself?

— Our team would. Absolutely. We always participate in the life of Belarus.

— I think that you do not plan to take part in the next "elections" — on January 26, 2025.

— (laughter) What to participate in? This is Lukashenka's version of "SVO" — Special Election Operation. This is an election in a concentration camp. When the head of the concentration camp says: let's organize the elections. And "choose" me.

And all the "kapos" (prisoners in Nazi concentration camps who cooperated with the administration) begin to organize elections for the camp commander. Well, that's good, funny from the outside, I guess. If it was not associated with human casualties, it would be possible to laugh.

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