'It Will Take Three Minutes To Waste Lukashenka'

The Belarusian air defence system has no chance.

The AFU hit the arsenal of the Russian MoD in the Bryansk region with American ATACMS missiles.

Why did the Russian air defence systems not respond to this strike?

Reserve colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, pilot instructor Roman Svitan told Charter97.org how this strike could have been planned:

— There are no air defence systems that would shoot down all the air targets. More or less real destruction coefficients — about 85-95% . Roughly speaking, if you send 10 missiles, then 1-2 missiles will definitely pass, perform a combat mission.

ATASMS strikes can also be calculated: in order for one missile to destroy or launch the detonation effect on some of the warehouses, it is analyzed how many Russians can shoot down with their S-300, S-400. If they shoot down 80%, they send five missiles, one of them will definitely pass.

So, by the way, it happened. The Russians say six missiles were sent. Like, they shot down five, the second one was damaged, but it blew up just everything. So the combat mission completed.

The Russians are very bad at shooting down ballistic missiles. To destroy a ballistic missile with a good chance, you need a contact strike. And the Russians have almost all complexes with remote detonation. A ballistic missile, which enters the target at a speed of Mach 2-2.5, is not always incapacitated. And even if it is damaged, it falls almost vertically. It still falls on the target, and if this target is a large football field on which ammunition is located, then it will definitely damage it.

It is better to destroy such warehouses with ballistics. The same five downed missiles fell on a warehouse in Bryansk. There were at least 12 detonations that were recorded by civilians. The ATASMS missiles successfully completed the combat mission.

— Not so long ago, the Israeli Air Force hit Iranian military facilities. Notably, the Russian S-300, which is in service in Tehran, did not react at all to the Israeli aircraft. So that is the modernity level of these systems.

— Although it is 50 years old, the S-300 is not a bad system, but against aerotargets and supersonic. It intercepts them quite well. If this system is available in sufficient quantity, then there is a destruction factor of 0.65, not 0.85, as in the S-400, but three missiles per target — and the issue is resolved. The system is good, but not against ballistics. It is weak against ballistics.

Why did the Iranians abandon the Russian S-400 systems? Because they already have the S-300, and Israel destroyed all the S-400. As a result, they decided to develop their air defence systems. In fact, they will be assembled from Chinese spare parts.

As for the Belarusian air defence, it is the same as the Russian one. They have S-400. But what is the S-400? Well-painted S-300.

By the way, if the Americans gave permission to attack the Russian territory, then the Belarusian one will wasted in three seconds, when the time comes. That's why Lukashenka is feeling threat right now. He can't swallow baked potatoes now only mashed.

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