‘There's Shock, Misunderstanding In Kremlin’

What consequences await Russia after the loss of Syria?

Russia is likely to lose its military bases in Syria. The USSR once had to withdraw troops from Afghanistan, which hastened the country's collapse. What will be the consequences this time?

Charter97.org talked to a well-known Ukrainian political scientist, head of the Centre for Applied Political Research ‘Penta’ Volodymyr Fesenko:

- There will be no such consequences as after the withdrawal from Afghanistan. At least because the war in Afghanistan lasted about 10 years, several hundred thousand people went through this war. About 100 thousand people were withdrawn.

The Russian Federation now has, judging by various data, the current contingent remaining in Syria - somewhere around 7,000 people. This is not that many. Some of them have already been withdrawn earlier, they are being used in the war against Ukraine.

Russian bloody generals (the same Surovikin and some others) went through Syria. However, I cannot say that the withdrawal of troops from Syria will somehow strengthen the Russian army. The contingent is relatively small, and there will be no serious consequences from withdrawing the troops.

Another thing is the consequences, which are of an image, political and psychological nature. This is a blow to the imperial ego of both Russian elites and common citizens. Perhaps this is now manifesting itself most strongly. Imperialists, excuse me, have been stepped on not even on a callus, but on the tender bits.

There is an attack of psychological pain: how can it be that ‘great Russia’ is losing so badly in Syria? There is shock and misunderstanding in the Kremlin.

Secondly, they are considering whether there will be consequences. And they will, because this is a manifestation of Russia's weakness, which is recorded both in the Middle East and in the countries of the global South. Russia is not as strong as it seemed for the last year and a half. So, it is possible to behave differently towards Russia. It is necessary to deal with other players - from the West to Turkey and Israel. Russia, as it turns out, cannot defend its closest allies.

The most serious conclusion in political-military terms is that Russia is now incapable of fighting a war on two fronts. It is bogged down in Ukraine.

As for the consequences in Syria, I expect more aggressiveness from Putin. When he suffers defeat, when he faces problems for his imperial ego, he tries to compensate with more aggressiveness.

The situation in Syria has clearly shown that Putin's resources are limited. Therefore, we need to increase the pressure on him.

The formula that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky constantly talks about is ‘peace through force’, forcing Putin to peace, increasing military, political and economic pressure on Russia. This is what will achieve peace and force Putin to end the war in Ukraine. This is the lesson of the Syrian events.

- How does Russia explain this defeat?

- Russian propaganda is now taking a pause. They are clearly not forcing an assessment of the Syrian events. They don't have a ready answer.

However, Russian propaganda will be telling the tall tales. Some sort of announcement will be made. Another thing is that in any case the residue and bitterness of defeat will remain. Especially the most ardent imperialists, who are not used to such a development of events. For them it is a blow, no matter what Russian propaganda says, the crack on the imperial ego will remain afterwards.

Once again, the most important thing is that the world has seen Putin's weakness. This could have the biggest consequences.

Take Trump, now everyone is discussing his posts about ‘it's time to end’. They are addressed to Putin as well.

The elected president of the United States is directly hinting to Putin about the defeat in Syria, the losses in the war with Ukraine, that it's time to end the war. In this regard, of course, there is a reaction.

Erdogan is already strengthening his position as well. I think China will act somewhat differently now. Russia's image as a ‘great power’ has been undermined.

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