'Putin Would Be Personally Calling All Leaders, Begging To End The War'

The political scientist called a scenario that could force Russia to end the war.

What was the outgoing year for Belarus and the world? Who are the main characters of 2024? What to expect in 2025? Charter97.org asked the political scientist Dzmitry Balkunets About this and more:

— For Belarus, the year was, let's say, consistently difficult, but peaceful. Because the war has not yet come to the territory of Belarus, but at the same time Belarus is involved in the war. I suspect that this year has been difficult economically, because the population continues to survive and is in depression.

For the world, the year was a time of unrealized hopes, primarily for Europe. Because in the situation in which Ukraine, the world, in particular the countries of the European Union appeared today provides no opportunity to stop this war.

I assume that the coming year may affect the fact that the war will end in favor of Ukraine. But for this, the countries of the European Union and the United States must show their political character and force the aggressor to stop the war.

— And what are the main events of this year that you would note?

— Among the main world events, I would note, probably, the Olympics, which few people noticed, the return of Trump to the Olympus of American politics and Republicans in general. This may have certain consequences for the coming years.

Of the important events, Ukraine did not fall. This is important from the point of view of European politics, European security. For the third year, Ukraine has been resisting Putin's attempts to seize even more and more territories. Obviously, the victims are large-scale, the destruction is huge, this is, of course, sad.

So far, no big breakthrough events, about which someone will talk in 50 or 100 years, have occurred this year.

— Many expect that 2025 will bring the end of the war. What are the key factors that could affect its outcome?

— My formula is very simple — in order to stop the war, it is necessary to show some actions and force on the part of the countries of the collective West against Russia. One of these tools is a temporary full trade embargo along all sea and land corridors, which Russia uses to enter the world ocean and enter the European market with its goods.

This is a key factor that can lead to stopping the war. They were in the world practice of history, when during wars the movements of merchant ships were blocked. If the European Union, together with the United Kingdom, the United States and Canada, block Russia's access to the world ocean through the straits in the area of Denmark, Sweden, as well as through the Bosphorus, simultaneously block all trade corridors from east to west, including transit for China, including a temporary complete blockade of the Kaliningrad region, the war will be over instantly. Because it will be a monstrous shock for Putin. He does not have any tools to change such a story.

This is an important factor that can lead not only to the end of the war, but also to the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from the occupied territories. But for this, there must be the political will of the European countries and the new US president, because Biden could not implement it. I suspect that if such a concept had been implemented, Putin himself would have called all the leaders and asked, begged them to end the war.

For him, it would be a fatal story economically. This would lead to a very serious problem with the Russian economy, and in a very short time. So, Russia has learned to circumvent the sanctions, they quietly use different ships, other types of equipment that export goods, use proxy countries to export goods.

The war in this regard, although it has become somewhat painful for Putin, is not as critical as it may seem. And only drastic measures can turn the tide of this war. It is obvious that Europe and the United States are not ready to give the weapons that Ukraine asks for, and the plan I am talking about is very peaceful.

I believe that this is perhaps one of the most realistic scenarios that can really force Putin to end the war.

— Who could you call the main character of the outgoing year?

— The protagonists of the outgoing year are the people of Ukraine, who are not broken, who continue their struggle both within the country and in exile. They suffer because Putin is waging this war, which he unleashed because of his hatred of the people of Ukraine. This is an exceptionally personal story of Putin, he hates them.

The people of Ukraine deal a very powerful blow to his ego and to all his actions. If Putin managed to implement his plan, I assume that he would repeat Stalin's options for resettling people from the occupied territories to Siberia. Moreover, they are already announcing the appearance of the "third capital" as much as possible.

These words sound from the mouths of individual Kremlin characters that people from Ukraine should be evicted to this third city, which they are going to build in Siberia. Putin has such plans, but the people of Ukraine do not want to move anywhere. They want to live on the land where they were born.

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